Sarasota real estate market STATS prove what everyone holding his/her breath feared: no tax gift steals chance for continued market recovery. What’s next for Sarasota-Bradenton’s real estate market?
July numbers sucker-punched Sarasota’s lively real estate market.
For just a few months, we celebrated increased sales and increased median price (see proof below).
In fact, some real estate agents actually thought all the first-time buyers (both local and out-of-area buyers) running around town waving $8,000 dollars would magically pull us out of the gutter.
Sorry, it’s not happening!
In one crazy (read: SLOW) month, our local market did a 180…leaving us to question what happens next! This is NOT about the sky is falling or all is well; this is (about) reality.
Click Read More below now to see with your own eyes July’s numbers from Sarasota Board of Realtor.
SARASOTA REAL ESTATE MARKET HITS WALL!
Before the charts come out, consider this: even these disappointing numbers do NOT show the real disappointment?
Sadly, these numbers do NOT reflect buyers continuing to cash in their $8,000 and $6,500 tax gifts, compliments of taxpayers and extended until end of September 2010 (on contracts executed by end of April 2010).
YIKES….
One month drops Sarasota Real Market on its face!
Median price drops to $155,000 compared to June’s $175,000.
Yellow brick path does NOT always lead to OZ - 2 months; 2 different real estate markets.
Condos appeal to "snowbirds" - Empty buildings for 7 months.
Here’s where we have to be aware that “statistics” can mask true market conditions.
$8,000 tax gift is perfect example of masking true market conditions: sales increased with slight median price increase as well. Once tax gift expired, sales and median have dropped.
In July, 374 single family homes were sold, compared to 576 single family homes sold in June 2010. The median price also trended lower at $155,000, compared to June’s figure of $175,000.
During April/May, headlines read, “Sarasota Real Estate Market Sees Biggest Sales Jump Since 2005!” Of course, ‘s the euphoria over a couple months’ sales volume matching ’05 numbers?
To get the true and big picture, you have to drill down into (and beyond) the sales stats.
Take a look at the numbers beyond the numbers. Here are just a couple stats I examine:
1. How many properties (single family houses & multi-family houses ~ condos) are for sale in your local market?
2. Are there more or fewer properties for sale than last month, last 1/4, last year? That is, is inventory shrinking or expanding?
3. Are values increasing or decreasing…& at what rate?
4. What is selling, i.e. starter homes, investor foreclosures, condos, luxury, etc?
5. What % of sales are distressed?
6. How much shadow inventory? When you drive through your (and other) neighborhoods, how many abandoned houses without For Sale signs? Are you seeing enough to notice? Chances are, you’re seeing “shadow” inventory then. In my area, we have LOTS of shadow inventory that WILL push down prices.
$8,000 tax gift most definitely effected the market, especially 1st time buyers. Tax gift didn’t help move up or move down buyers. They’re stuck in underwater houses down 30-50% off what they owe.
NOTE: Please don’t waste your time emailing me about effect vs affect. I know the difference and “EFFECT” fits the context in which it’s used. If you want to describe something that was caused or brought about, the right word to use is effect. Example: The new manager effected some positive changes in the office. (This means that the new manager caused some positive changes to take place in the office.) Thanks for paying attention though. 
What do market STATS mean to you as a buyer or seller? PLEASE scroll down & give me your take on all this. None of us have a crystal ball. Yet, do we need to a crystal ball? Do we need only drive around with our eyes open and talk to local business owners while trying to avoid all the empty storefronts and “Going Out Of Business” signs? If you or someone you know wants/needs to buy or sell a house in or around Sarasota, Florida, please contact me now. I want to be your realtor.
Sarasota real estate market HOPES buyers see Sarasota as the same beautiful place it was before the bust. Sellers will suffer as prices continue trending down. Inventory of single family homes for sale in July 2010 rose to 10.4 months from 6.6 months in June. A “normal” market where there’s a healthy supply of buyers and sellers is considered 6 months worth of properties. For condos, inventory jumped to 14.4 months from 10.6 months.
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